Strategy guide
Draft Him tells you it’s hopeless, and it’s mostly right. But the odds aren’t even. We ran 500,000 simulated picks through the game’s own outcome and scouting code to find out which decisions actually matter.
How we measured: 500,000 picks using the full late-career outcome pool, with no upgrades and no weekly events. These are averages. Your Tuesday may vary.
The bad news
The average drafted player has a projection of 16 points and delivers 1.55. That’s under 10% of what you were promised. 77.3% of picks score exactly zero. Here’s why:
| What happens | How often | Average points |
|---|---|---|
| Things nobody can explain | 37.1% | 3.46 |
| Arrested | 35.9% | 0.00 |
| Injured | 17.1% | 0.49 |
| Suspended | 9.0% | 0.00 |
| Legendary | 1.0% | 18.19 |
By rarity, a pick is common 70% of the time, uncommon 20%, rare 9% and legendary 1%.
Which scouting reports to trust
A scouting report describes the player’s real fate only 60% of the time. The rest of the time it’s about something else entirely. But that still makes the report the most useful information in the game.
| Report sounds like | Example | Average points | Scores zero |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weird | “Brings a goat to practice.” | 2.78 | 58.1% |
| Clean | “Calls his mom every day.” | 2.37 | 74.9% |
| Injury-prone | “Has never stretched.” | 1.06 | 81.0% |
| League trouble | “Calls the commissioner by a nickname. Not a nice one.” | 1.06 | 84.4% |
| Criminal | “Owns four jet skis. Drives none of them legally.” | 0.56 | 91.9% |
So the headline is simple: draft the weirdo. A player with a weird report scores about five times what a player with a criminal report does. Someone who collects haunted dolls might miss a week. Someone with a lawyer who has a lawyer will not be available.
Clean reports are a trap, sort of
A clean report is the one that feels safest, and it’s the one that lies most. A player described as an upstanding citizen still gets arrested 34.1% of the time, about the same as anybody else. He turns out to be legendary only 5.8% of the time.
That 5.8% is still almost six times the normal rate, which is why clean players come second on average. They’re a lottery ticket. When you need a big score, take the man who goes to bed at 9. When you just need something on the board, take the man with the goat.
What each report really predicts
Criminal and weird reports are the most honest. Suspension reports are the least.
| Report | Comes true |
|---|---|
| Weird | 78.0% |
| Criminal | 77.2% |
| Injury-prone | 55.4% |
| League trouble | 37.3% |
| Clean (turns out legendary) | 5.8% |
Does position matter?
Every position keeps about the same share of its projection, so a bigger projection really is better. If two reports look equally bad, take the quarterback.
| Position | Average projection | Average points |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 22.0 | 2.08 |
| RB | 17.0 | 1.66 |
| WR | 16.0 | 1.58 |
| TE | 11.0 | 1.05 |
| K | 8.5 | 0.80 |
Kickers are a special case. They have their own set of outcomes and get arrested only 20.4% of the time, compared with about 38% for everyone else. They just also end up in bizarre situations 60.5% of the time. They’re safe, cheap and deeply strange, which is why Kev has built his whole team around them.
Which draft style is best?
Pick 1 of 3 gives you the most information, and the league scores 45% more in exchange. Quick pick gives you none, and the league gets no bonus. If you read reports and follow the table above, Pick 1 of 3 is the most interesting way to play. If you’re going to pick at random anyway, quick pick is strictly better: you get the same chaos against weaker opponents.
Remember that the league also improves by 10% each season you play, up to 50%. Your dynasty will not go unnoticed.
Ready to test the theory? Draft someone. Then spend your clout wisely with the front office guide.